The world is facing a flood of oil that could push global benchmark Brent prices down into the $30s by the end of 2027 if nothing is done to curtail supply, JPMorgan warned in a Monday note to clients. Oil demand has remained surprisingly strong in 2025 despite bearish sentiment, growing by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd). Demand is expected to accelerate by 1.2 million bpd in 2027, according to the bank. But supply is forecast to widen at three times the rate of demand growth this year and next, with half of the gains coming from producers outside OPEC+ , JPMorgan analysts said. The oil market could see a 2.8 million bpd surplus in 2026 and before easing to 2.7 million bpd in 2027, the analysts said. Surpluses that size would push Brent down to $42 per barrel in 2027 and then into $30s by the end of that year absent intervention to curtail supply, they said. But “the magnitude suggested by market imbalances is unlikely to fully materialize in practice,” said Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of global commodities strategy. JPMorgan is maintaining its 2026 Brent price forecast of $58 per barrel and projects $57 per barrel in 2027 on the expectation that producers will voluntarily cut supply to stabilize the market. Without such intervention, low oil prices will spur demand and will also force production shut-ins across non-OPEC producers, helping to stabilize prices, according to the bank. But JPMorgan acknowledged that “considerable effort will be required to stabilize prices at these levels.” Brent prices are already down 16% this year and U.S crude has fallen 19% as OPEC+ raises production after years of cuts. Brent was trading above $62 per barrel on Monday and West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude oil, was just above $58 per barrel.
Monday, April 13
$30 oil? JPMorgan thinks it’s possible in a couple of years
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