Investors enter this Christmas-shortened trading week focused on two things. Will Santa Claus come to Wall Street? And, how do holiday shoppers feel about the economy? Last week was the final full trading week of 2025, and it was a volatile one. The AI trade went up and down, and the market was swayed by mixed monthly jobs data and cooler consumer inflation. When it was all said and done, the S & P 500 rose 0.1% last week but remained slightly in the red for the normally seasonally strong month of December. As of last Friday’s close, the index was up 16.2% year to date. The U.S. stock market closes early at 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday, which is Christmas Eve, and closes entirely on Christmas Day. 1. Santa Claus rally this year? Whether December can pull out a monthly advance — and just how much the S & P 500 will be up in 2025 — depends on the so-called Santa Claus Rally period, marked by the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. This time around, that’s Dec. 24, 26, 29, 30, and 31, and then Jan. 2 and Jan. 5. Since 1950, the S & P 500 has recorded an average gain of 1.3% over this seven-session stretch. Yale Hirsch, founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, coined the idea of a Santa Claus rally in 1972. His son, Jeffrey Hirsch, who is editor-in-chief of the Almanac, told CNBC Pro in an interview that a decline this time would be a warning. “It’s not, ‘We’re going to have a bear market.’ It’s a flag to start looking at the other data [to see if] maybe something’s up.” 2. Are shoppers more confident? The last check on how consumers were feeling about the economy was not good. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dipped in November to its lowest reading since April . Respondents to the monthly survey said last month they were worried about the job market and inflation, which make up the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve. The consumer confidence reading for December, which is set for release on Tuesday at 10 a.m. ET, comes after the government said last week that nonfarm payrolls grew in November after slumping in October. The nation’s unemployment rate last month rose to its highest level in four years. The inflation picture last week showed improvement , with the government’s November consumer price index registering a smaller-than-expected year over year advance. Week ahead Note: There will be no Morning Meeting on Wednesday, Dec. 24, and Friday, Dec. 26. Tuesday, Dec 23 8:30 a.m. ET: GDP (Q3 first reading) 8:30 a.m. ET: Durable goods orders (October) 9:15 a.m. ET: Industrial production (October & November) 10 a.m. ET: Consumer Confidence (December) Wednesday, Dec. 24 8:30 a.m. ET: Weekly jobless claims Thursday, Dec. 25 Stock market closed for Christmas Day (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust, the portfolio used by the CNBC Investing Club.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Friday, February 13
Here are 2 things we’re watching in the stock market this week
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