The S & P 500 is within inches of reaching 7,000. History says it might take a bit longer before it climbs to that milestone level. Jonathan Krinsky of BTIG pointed out the broad market index has a history of struggling right before scaling a “big round number.” It happened in 2024, when the S & P 500 was approaching 6,000 and in early 2022 — when it neared 5,000. And while it had little trouble breaking above 4,000 in 2021, it was under pressure when it neared 3,000 in 2018 and 2,000 in 2014. .SPX bar 2013-12-31 SPX since 2014 “While there is nothing inherently bearish about a big round number, four of the last five big 1k levels did provide some turbulence,” Krinsky wrote. Wall Street is coming into Monday’s session already on shaky ground. Stocks were lower after the Justice Department opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with the probe raising questions about the central bank’s independence. Separately, President Donald Trump’s call late Friday for credit card interest rates to be capped at 10% for one year also put pressure on banking stocks. Many of the largest banks are set to report fourth-quarter earnings this week, which could increase volatility for their stocks. The group is also overbought after a recent rally, Krinsky said, making it susceptible to a near-term pullback. Others are more sanguine. The bigger picture for the market looks positive, according to Mark Gibbens, chief investment officer at Gibbens Capital Management. The fundamental factors “haven’t changed,” he said. “Economic growth is stable and good. It’s looking like it’s going to come in around 3% in 2026. In earnings, we’re looking at mid-teens growth.” Earnings growth should also broaden out, with companies outside of artificial intelligence seeing better profits. “Overall, I think it’s going to be a good year,” Gibbens said. “There’s enough healthy skepticism out there that will allow the market to perform better than many investors think.”
Thursday, February 12
S&P 500 often comes under pressure as it approaches big round numbers
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